Session 10- Technology Assessment and Forecasting; Developing a Framework for Understanding What Comes Next

This session explored how the concept of technology assessment and forecasting. As the rate of improvements in technology is increasing at an exponential rate, it is important to assess and forecast the impacts of future technology. It is important that we know the what impacts (social, political, environmental or ethical) a new technology might bring about. By accessing the impacts that different forms of technologies, we are able to prioritize and decide which type of technology should we invest in. This is because research and development costs for new technology is very expensive and a wrong investment might cause an entire company to go bust. For example, Toshiba invested heavily the the HD-DVD format and released many products that were HD-DVD compatible. However, it soon conceded that its HD-DVD format has lost the war against the Blu-Ray format that was produced by Sony. Toshiba had to spend more money to release new products that were Blu- Ray compatible. In addition, the costs that Toshiba incurred in researching the HD-DVD format did not bring about any tangible benefits.

One important concept that I learnt during this session was the difference between sales and marketing. This could lead to the difference between a rising technology and one that is not. Sales refers to just the selling of a product, while marketing refers to the customization and the sale of a product that is catered in such a way to suit the needs of the customer. Sony incorporated its blu-ray discs into its Playstation consoles and had a wider market share as more customers were using the Blu- Ray discs.


We were introduced to a video called the top 3 inventions of the future. They introduced Nokia's Morph Handphone, Google Earth and Salt Water Fuel. The Morph is basically an extension of what I blogged about last week, imagine if electronics could become flexible. Nokia's morph is able bend and is extremely hydrophobic, meaning that it would be extremely dirt resistant. Here's a video to tell you more about the Nokia Morph:






The saltwater fuel was also another piece of breakthrough technology. I feel that this form of technology can change the world! The global energy crisis is in dire need for an energy source and salt might just be the answer! It is in abundance in the saltwater oceans around the world!


During class, Prof also introduced the concept of Strategic Foresight to us. This basically involves studying the needs of the future and looking into how a business or organisation can move towards their intended target. Rather than looking at what they are now, Prof told us about the "blank paper analogy". Companies should look at what they want to be in the future, forecasting their goals, targets and key performance indicators. They should then look at the present- what they have and what is stopping them from achieving those goals. After identifying those limiting factors, companies should then change their internal process, eliminating all limiting factors so that they are able to meet the goals that they have set for themselves.


So why do we need to forecast the future? By forecasting, we are able to use the results in policy recommendation as well as to analysis the trends and drivers of change. By predicting what the market would be like in the future, companies are able to design and produce products in advance to meet the market demands in the future. To take things to a different level, innovative companies can choose to invent the future. This means to create a supply even though there is no demand.


Overall, I felt that this was a good conclusion to the lessons learnt throughout all the TWC lessons. We now know that by forecasting technological impacts in the future, we are able to be better prepared for the changes that are bound to happen. However, I feel that forecasting can be a risky business as well, as we will never know what the future brings. Nevertheless, I would give this lesson an 8/10!




Lenard